2024 State of Transportation Report

Top challenges impacting networks, 2024 vs. 2023

2024			2023
	39% Extreme weather events (i.e., floods, hurricanes, tornadoes)			51% Volatile diesel fuel prices
	36% Freight market contraction			37% Limited freight capacity
	33% Emissions reduction goals/regulations			36% Driver shortages

Cost has also fallen as a priority for shippers seeking carrier services — likely due to the soft capacity market that emerged in 2023. But at the same time, considerations tied to climate concerns and emissions reduction have risen on shippers’ priority lists, including sustainable or alternative energy shipping capabilities. In the current market, where cost is less of a concern, shippers are also more likely to look for carriers with more comprehensive capabilities. Most notably, shippers’ No. 1 priority when establishing carrier partnerships this year is add-on services, which suggests they are looking for carriers to do more while the market tilts in the shippers’ favor. Shippers are also seeking carrier partners who can help them up-level service quality and provide energy-efficient or alternative energy vehicles. This mirrors a trend in Breakthrough’s platform data. Increasingly, shippers are seeking information about carriers’ alternative energy capabilities and fleet fuel efficiency. This indicates shippers are more focused on the total value a carrier partner can provide, not just cost. However, the capacity market is expected to reverse in 2024, with shippers set to gradually lose the upper hand on cost as we head into 2025. Across shippers and carriers, 80% of transportation leaders believe the capacity market will tighten and rates will increase in 2024. But  they are evenly split on how soon that will happen: 40% say tightening  will occur in Q1 or Q2 and the other 40% say it will hold off until Q3 or Q4.

Top 3 considerations for shippers when establishing carrier partnerships, 2024 vs. 2023

2024			2023
	Add-on services (e.g., warehousing)  that enable me to consolidate vendors			Cost
	On-time pickup/delivery reliability			Capacity
	Sustainable or alternative energy shipping capabilities (tie)			On-time pickup/delivery performance
	Innovative technology capabilities (tie)

Whether or not the capacity market begins to tighten in 2024, one thing  is clear: The transportation landscape will look markedly different  by the time 2025 arrives.

Volatile climate events will further complicate a year that’s already seen unique transportation challenges. Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Red Sea conflict, have disrupted major maritime shipping routes, costing shippers time, money, and emissions progress. At the same time, higher regulatory standards for emissions — like the EU’s expansion of its Emissions Trading System (ETS) to include maritime emissions — require more resources to navigate. As the year progresses, transportation  teams will need to remain agile and responsive in adapting to  changing circumstances.

When does Breakthrough predict the capacity market to tighten?

We project capacity to remain relatively abundant through the end of 2024. While a soft market is advantageous to shippers, it can exert significant financial strain on certain carriers. In worst-case scenarios, some may cease operations. In the unfortunate event a carrier partner carriers. stops operations, you’ll need the ability to quickly search and vet new

Pro tip: The right SaaS solution enables you to pivot quickly when needs change. Capac-ID is a comprehensive productivity platform for shippers that provides transacted rate benchmarking, lane-specific carrier identification, and actionable recommendations to optimize your transportation strategy.

Shippers’ long-term sustainability-related transportation goals as of 2024

• 63% Achieving or fulfilling specific sustainability certifications  or standards (e.g., science-based targets)
• 60% Achieving a specific percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
• 50% Achieving net-zero emissions
• 45% Achieving carbon neutrality

With regulations like California’s Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act (SB 253) on the horizon, shippers will be required to track and disclose their scope 3 emissions as early as 2027. However, only 35% of shippers say they plan to track scope 3 transportation emissions in 2024, a misstep preventing them from setting benchmarks and identifying opportunities to reduce emissions. Shippers that begin tracking scope 3 emissions now can secure competitive relationships with energy-efficient carriers before new laws take effect and demand increases.

Locking in mutually beneficial partnerships is key since most shippers still act on cost rather than sustainability, despite a reduced focus on cost overall in 2024. Case in point: Only a fifth (21%) of shippers plan to switch to lower-emission transportation modes like rail this year. This aligns with Breakthrough’s projection that intermodal growth will remain slow due  to competitive truckload rates. It also suggests shippers are looking to  see evidence of sustained service improvements before fully committing  to intermodal.

Is establishing a scope 3 transportation emissions baseline possible?

You can’t curb emissions when you lack information on the emissions intensity of each lane in your network. Luckily, gaining visibility into your scope 3 transportation emissions — and reducing them — is easier than it may seem. If you have the right partner.

Pro tip: With CleanMile, Breakthrough’s end-to-end emissions management solution, you can access a granular view of scope 1 and 3 transportation emissions for every individual load, not just your network as a whole. This enables you to pinpoint where and when emissions spikes occur and identify opportunities to reduce them.

On the other side of the equation, carriers are taking action to keep pace with shippers’ sustainability goals. They’re primarily focused on optimizing vehicle performance in a variety of ways to reduce emissions across  their fleets.

However, carriers made less progress toward getting EVs on the road in 2023 than they hoped. Last year, 59% of carriers surveyed said they planned to add EVs by the end of 2023, but this year’s results show only 13% of carriers have already added EVs to their fleets. What’s behind the disconnect? A variety of macroeconomic factors are at play. Most notably, charging infrastructure hurdles and legal challenges delaying policies like California’s Advanced Clean Fleets regulation have stalled progress. Likewise, delayed production of battery-electric tractors, the higher cost of capital, and compressed margins are also contributing to setbacks.

Given the many challenges to getting EVs on the road, shippers and carriers should begin collaborating early on implementation strategies. With execution taking longer than expected, transportation leaders must plan for lengthy timelines and continue to explore a range of sustainability opportunities beyond EVs.

Shippers’ top 5 planned actions for making sustainability progress in 2024			Carriers’ top 5 planned actions to reduce emissions in 2024
	Evaluate the potential emissions impact of alternative energy modes (e.g., EVs, biodiesel, hydrofuel)			Implement fuel-efficient technologies in our vehicles
	Optimize routes to minimize distance traveled			Conduct regular maintenance to ensure optimal vehicle performance
	Assess cost and market availability of transitioning select lanes to alternative energy modes			Adopt electric or hybrid vehicles in our fleet
	Contract with more sustainable carriers (e.g., SmartWay certified)			Optimize route planning to minimize fuel consumption
	Track scope 3 transportation emissions			Implement driver training programs for eco-friendly driving practices

No. 1 focus area for transportation teams  in the next 12 months, 2024 vs. 2023

2024			2023
	51% Establishing relationships with new partners to increase efficiencies			70% Strengthening mutually beneficial transportation contracts with current partners

Transportation leaders generally see carrier consolidation as a positive trend. Roughly a third of both shippers and carriers expect to see increased efficiencies (38%), more stable pricing (35%), and improved service quality (32%) over the next 12 months [Fig. 1].

Yet, shippers continue to face regional hurdles in contracting carriers.  A lack of relationships with carriers in certain geographies and the availability of specific equipment types in certain geographies remain  top pain points. Likewise, shippers are seeking more information  on industry-specific negotiated linehaul rates.

However, the right technology solution can help transportation  leaders eliminate visibility gaps across their networks. Freight productivity solutions like Breakthrough’s Capac-ID can support shippers  by providing information on regional carriers by lane, along with advanced rate benchmarking based on real transactions and personalized  network recommendations.

Figure 1: Top 3 expected impacts of carrier consolidation over the next 12 months

From the carrier perspective, the most notable shift between 2023 and 2024 is around how relationships are forged. In 2023, 65% of carriers said professional relationships with shipper contacts were a consideration  when establishing a partnership. In 2024, only 47% of carriers said the  same. This change aligns with both shippers’ and carriers’ desire to seek  out and cultivate new partnerships, as well as new opportunities  emerging  as a result of changes in the capacity and carrier markets.

Another sign shippers and carriers are looking to take advantage of the current freight market to secure favorable partnerships? They’re feeling  less secure in their ability to overcome hurdles. In 2023, nearly two-thirds (62%) of transportation leaders strongly agreed they had access to  the right tools and partnerships to effectively navigate transportation challenges. In 2024, the share of transportation leaders who strongly  agree has dipped below 50%.

This decline in confidence may signal that expected transportation challenges in the year ahead — like volatile climate events — feel more unpredictable and less manageable than in the past. Strong partnerships and advanced data and analytics capabilities will be key to responding to disruptions and increasing agility throughout the transportation ecosystem.

Shippers’ top 3 hurdles to finding carriers that meet their needs, 2024 vs. 2023

2024			2023
	57% Lack of relationships with carriers in certain geographies			49% Lack of information about available carriers
	54% Lack of information on average negotiated  linehaul rates for my industry			46% Availability of specific equipment types in certain geographies
	48% Availability of specific equipment types in certain geographies			44% Lack of relationships with carriers in certain geographies

Carriers’ top considerations when establishing shipper partnerships in the next 12 months, 2024 vs. 2023

2024			2023
	50% Equipment requirements			51% Equipment requirements
	49% Payment terms			63% Payment terms
	49% Sustainability requirements			51% Sustainability requirements
	48% Fuel reimbursement rates			59% Fuel reimbursement rates
	47% Professional relationships with shipper contracts			65% Professional relationships with shipper contacts

Overcoming challenges is easier with Breakthrough

The transportation management landscape is evolving at an accelerated rate — and only growing more complex. Unpredictable hurdles are coming your way, but so are new opportunities.

Breakthrough is the only technology partner that offers sustainable fuel and freight solutions. We’re uniquely positioned to provide the data, technology, and insights you need to gain a truly comprehensive view of your network and tackle interconnected objectives. Let us help you gather the lane-level data and real-time insights you need to move with agility, uncover cost savings, and make progress toward sustainability goals.