Breakthrough's Monthly Freight Index
Breakthrough's freight index is your monthly source for U.S. freight market intelligence. Built on shipper-transacted data from Breakthrough's dataset, it gives transportation leaders an updated view of market trends, enabling you to take confident action.
Freight index analysis
Breakthrough ecosystem volumes grew 0.6 percent year-over-year in June, continuing the stop-start pattern that has defined the ecosystem since the start of the year. Retail led at +9.1 percent, supported by broad sales strength and continued momentum among discount-oriented retailers as consumers trade down. Paper and packaging held at +5.2 percent, driven by tight supply following containerboard price increases and 2025 mill closures alongside tariff front-running.
Durable goods (-3.9 percent), consumer packaged goods (-7.0 percent), and food and beverage (-1.9 percent) remained below prior-year levels, reflecting pullback in discretionary spending and private-label trade-down that shifts spend without adding freight. The freight demand indicator forecast holds essentially flat at 1.6 percent growth, with recovery contingent on one of the lagging sectors turning rather than the leaders climbing further.
Freight market update
Published: August 1, 2026
Breakthrough ecosystem volumes grew 0.6 percent year-over-year in June, led by retail and paper and packaging, while durable goods, CPG, and food and beverage remained below prior-year levels. Retailers shifted into slight restocking mode ahead of tariff changes in July, offering some near-term freight tailwind.
Truckload capacity remains constrained heading into the second half, shaped by regulatory enforcement, the broker liability ruling, and a thinning carrier pool. Rate forecasts moved higher again across all modes, with contract rates projected 15-20 percent above the prior twelve months.
What is affecting freight demand right now?
Freight demand reflects a mix of macroeconomic pressures and shifting market dynamics.
Each of these dynamics carries direct implications for how shippers plan, procure, and benchmark their transportation networks.
Understanding what's driving the current market and what it means for your network is the first step toward making confident, data-driven decisions in today's rapidly shifting environment.
Macroeconomic factors
Inflation, energy costs, and mixed sentiment are pressuring demand, while consumer spending continues to provide support.
Industry and sector dynamics
Freight volumes remain uneven, with retail strength offset by softness in durable goods, food and beverage, and CPG.
Policy and market drivers
Tariffs and regulatory pressure are creating uncertainty across freight demand and capacity.
What this means for shippers
Ground decisions in data
Benchmark against shipper-transacted data reveals cost gaps, improvement opportunities, and stronger positioning in carrier conversations.
Evaluate your carrier mix
Review your carrier mix by lane and identifying whether alternatives exist can help protect service levels and manage costs.
Plan for a gradual recovery
Leverage unbiased, data-driven market expertise to effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About Breakthrough's Dataset
The Breakthrough ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
46.5 million shipments
$35 billion in transportation spend
16.5 billion commercial miles
2.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Frequently asked questions
Stay Ahead of Freight Market Changes
The freight market doesn't stop. Shippers need to stay informed, plan ahead, and act on real-time, lane-level data.