Breakthrough's Monthly Freight Index
Breakthrough's freight index is your monthly source for U.S. freight market intelligence. Built on shipper-transacted data from Breakthrough's dataset, it gives transportation leaders an updated view of market trends, enabling you to take confident action.
Freight index analysis
Overall, Breakthrough’s data ecosystem volumes held relatively flat at 0.7% year-over-growth in the aggregate. Retail along with paper and packaging continue to support the upside volume growth, but the closing of the tariff pull-forward window that had supported import volumes early in the month may be a dynamic to watch for these sectors moving forward. Retail sales fell, the labor market shed 23,000 jobs, and some consumer discretionary spending indices showed declines, pointing to a cautious consumer spending environment ahead.
Truckload capacity continued tightening as ELP enforcement expanded to commercial border zone drivers and CBP-DOT collaboration deterred cross-border movements. Rate forecasts moved slightly higher in August across modes, driven by supply constraint rather than demand acceleration.
Freight market update
Published: September 1, 2026
Breakthrough’s data ecosystem volumes grew 0.7% year over year in July, sustaining the soft pattern that has defined the ecosystem through 2026. Retail slowed to 6.8%, still supported by discount-oriented retailers as budget-conscious consumers trade down, while paper and packaging eased to 4.5%. Both of these sectors have been impacted by tariff-related front-running activity in recent months. Durable goods improved to -1.1% but remained below prior-year levels, and food and beverage slipped to -2.2% as private label continued gaining share. Consumer packaged goods held at -3.4%, the year's persistent laggard.
The closing of the tariff pull-forward window is the most consequential near-term variable, as borrowed volume may weigh on Q3 comparisons. The Breakthrough Freight Demand Indicator forecast held this month at 1.6% year-over-year growth expectations for a second straight month, with manufacturing at ISM 55.6 one of the few bright spots in an otherwise flat demand environment.
What is affecting freight demand right now?
Freight demand reflects a mix of macroeconomic pressures and shifting market dynamics.
Each of these dynamics carries direct implications for how shippers plan, procure, and benchmark their transportation networks.
Understanding what's driving the current market and what it means for your network is the first step toward making confident, data-driven decisions in today's rapidly shifting environment.
Macroeconomic factors
Inflation, a stable but soft labor market, and modest consumer spending are weighing on demand, while manufacturing remains a bright spot.
Industry and sector dynamics
Retail and paper and packaging are supporting freight volumes, while durable goods, food and beverage, and CPG remain below year-ago levels.
Policy and market drivers
Tariffs and regulatory enforcement are tightening truckload capacity and creating uncertainty across freight demand and cross-border movements.
What this means for shippers
Ground decisions in data
Benchmark against shipper-transacted data reveals cost gaps, improvement opportunities, and stronger positioning in carrier conversations.
Evaluate your carrier mix
Review your carrier mix by lane and identifying whether alternatives exist can help protect service levels and manage costs.
Plan for a gradual recovery
Leverage unbiased, data-driven market expertise to effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About Breakthrough's Dataset
The Breakthrough ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
46.5 million shipments
$35 billion in transportation spend
16.5 billion commercial miles
2.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Frequently asked questions
Stay Ahead of Freight Market Changes
The freight market doesn't stop. Shippers need to stay informed, plan ahead, and act on real-time, lane-level data.