The Breakthrough Monthly Freight Index
Elevate your freight strategy with the Breakthrough Ecosystem. Stay informed with the latest freight index and market update, empowering you to navigate shifts in demand and capacity.
Freight index analysis
Total shipment volume across the Breakthrough Ecosystem reflects the broader macroeconomic trend of subdued demand, as both firms and consumers adopt a cautious "wait-and-see" approach to spending and investment. Year-over-year, total volume across all shippers declined by 1.3%. An analysis of industry segments reveals that nearly all sectors experienced volume decreases.
- The retail and paper and packaging segments performed best, remaining essentially flat.
- In contrast, durable goods saw a 3.4% year-over-year reduction, which is consistent with weakening business investment in the current macroeconomic climate.
Looking forward, we anticipate these conditions will persist. Elevated economic uncertainty, a cooling labor market, high borrowing costs, and trade policy volatility support our forecast for subdued freight demand through the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026.
Freight market update
Published: September 19, 2025
Freight markets remain sluggish amid a prolonged recession, with demand tied to a challenging macroeconomic environment. Consumer resilience faces pressure from a cooling labor market, persistent inflation, and rising uncertainty in 2025, while business investment shows caution. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September, reflecting labor market weakness and inflation concerns.
Freight demand remains soft, with shipment volumes down 1.3% year-over-year. Durable goods fell 3.4%, aligning with weaker business investment. Trucking employment declined modestly, and Class 8 truck orders weakened, signaling potential production cuts. Breakthrough forecasts gradual freight rate increases over the next year, with current market conditions persisting.
Adapt to freight market demands
To maintain a competitive advantage, integrate innovative strategies that leverage data, technology, and market expertise. By doing so, you can take a proactive approach to procurement.
Access real-time data
Prepare for the forecasted increase in freight demand by having access to a real-time, shipper-transacted dataset. With this type of data at your fingertips, you can benchmark your network against other industry-leading shippers and uncover opportunities within your transportation network.
Invest in relationships
Invest in mutually beneficial relationships with carriers to be prepared for any sudden changes in freight demand or capacity. Leverage Capac-ID to determine if alternative carriers might be a better match for certain lanes and loads.
Leverage a trusted source
Keep informed about market shifts to adjust your transportation plans promptly. By leveraging unbiased market expertise from sources like Breakthrough, you can effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About the Breakthrough Ecosystem
The Breakthrough Ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
28+ million shipments
$32 billion in transportation spend
15+ billion commercial miles
2 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Take control of your freight network
Experience firsthand how Breakthrough’s innovative freight solutions can keep a constant pulse on your transportation network performance and identify areas for cost reduction and efficiency gains.