Breakthrough's Monthly Freight Index
Breakthrough's Monthly Freight Index is your monthly source of information on the U.S. freight market. Based on transaction data from carriers in Breakthrough’s database, it provides transportation industry leaders with an up-to-date view of market trends, enabling you to take action with complete confidence.
Freight Index Analysis
The Breakthrough ecosystem moved back into positive territory in September at 0.3 percent year over year, recovering from a dip in August. Paper and packaging rose 6.3 percent, helped by orders placed ahead of containerboard price increases, and retail climbed 6.1 percent as off-price, discount, and general merchandise formats picked up shoppers looking to stretch their budgets. CPG fell 5.3 percent, food and beverage was down 2.5 percent, and durable goods slipped 2.2 percent as a stalled housing market and tariffs held back big-ticket purchases.
Producer prices rose 6.3 percent, CPI reached 3.7 percent, and real wages have declined for six straight months, squeezing household budgets. The Breakthrough Freight Demand Indicator forecast ticked down to 1.3 percent from 1.5 percent. A seasonal lift should carry volumes through the holidays and into early 2027 before fading by spring.
Freight Market Update
Published: November 1, 2026
Breakthrough ecosystem freight volume edged up 0.3 percent year over year in September, as gains in paper and packaging and retail offset continued declines in CPG, food and beverage, and durable goods. Industrial activity is gaining momentum with ISM manufacturing in expansion for a ninth straight month, but rising inflation and six straight months of falling real earnings are weighing on consumer-facing freight.
Truckload capacity remains tight as English proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, insurance costs, and record diesel prices push smaller carriers out. Spot rates are currently forecasted to hover around current levels while contract rates keep catching up into 2027.
What is affecting freight demand right now?
The demand for freight transportation reflects a combination of macroeconomic pressures and changing market dynamics.
Each of these dynamics has direct implications for how carriers plan, contract, and evaluate their transportation networks.
Understanding what is driving the current market and what this means for your network is the first step toward making confident, data-driven decisions in today’s rapidly changing environment.
Macroeconomic factors
A September Fed rate hike, 3.7 percent inflation, and record diesel prices above $6 per gallon are squeezing consumers, while manufacturing and AI-related investment remain bright spots.
Industry and sector dynamics
Retail and paper and packaging remain above year-ago levels as shoppers trade down and buyers order ahead of price increases, while CPG, food and beverage, and durable goods continue to decline.
Policy drivers
English proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, and the broker liability ruling are tightening truckload capacity, while tariffs on furniture, cabinets, and lumber weigh on durable goods demand.
What does this mean for shippers?
Data-Driven Decisions
A comparison with shippers' transaction data reveals cost differences, opportunities for improvement, and a stronger negotiating position with carriers.
Evaluate your combination of operators
Reviewing the mix of carriers by route and identifying potential alternatives can help maintain service levels and manage costs.
Plan for a Gradual Recovery
Leverage unbiased, data-driven market insights to effectively communicate market dynamics to your management team, thereby strengthening your credibility as a leader in the transportation industry.
About the Breakthrough Dataset
The Breakthrough ecosystem is one of the most accurate and reliable transportation datasets in the United States.
46.5 million shipments
$35 billion in transportation spending
16.5 billion commercial miles
2.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Frequently Asked Questions
Stay on top of changes in the freight market
The freight market never stops. Shippers must stay informed, plan ahead, and act based on real-time data for each route.