The Breakthrough Monthly Freight Index
Elevate your freight strategy with the Breakthrough Ecosystem. Stay informed with the latest freight index and market update, empowering you to navigate shifts in demand and capacity.
Freight index analysis
Total shipment volume across the Breakthrough Ecosystem remains subdued, with September down 0.8% year-over-year. The market convergence towards flat growth across industry segments reflects ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Durable goods have underperformed over the last year due to housing market stagnation and reduced consumer spending. Retail has softened lately after last year’s seasonal lift, while food and beverage shows slight growth.
Ecosystem volumes dipped slightly in September, consistent with seasonal patterns and prior inventory pull-forward. Looking ahead, freight demand is expected to grow modestly, with our forecast projecting 0.6% year-over-year growth through 2025, unchanged from last month. This outlook reflects cautious optimism for greater clarity and reduced uncertainty by mid-2026.
Freight market update
Published: October 21, 2025
Freight demand remains soft due to broader macroeconomic conditions and economic uncertainty, but early signs of tightening capacity are emerging. Carrier attrition, a pullback in equipment investment, and rising costs are driving this shift in this continued freight recession. Regulatory pressures, including stricter English proficiency enforcement and new CDL restrictions, could impact driver availability. Rate forecasts were adjusted this month with dry van spot and contract rates up in the 2-3% range over the next year, with refrigerated rates rising and intermodal and flatbed relatively stable. Capacity risks are growing in the near term which may apply gradual rate pressure from the supply side.
Adapt to freight market demands
To maintain a competitive advantage, integrate innovative strategies that leverage data, technology, and market expertise. By doing so, you can take a proactive approach to procurement.
Access real-time data
Prepare for the forecasted increase in freight demand by having access to a real-time, shipper-transacted dataset. With this type of data at your fingertips, you can benchmark your network against other industry-leading shippers and uncover opportunities within your transportation network.
Invest in relationships
Invest in mutually beneficial relationships with carriers to be prepared for any sudden changes in freight demand or capacity. Leverage Capac-ID to determine if alternative carriers might be a better match for certain lanes and loads.
Leverage a trusted source
Keep informed about market shifts to adjust your transportation plans promptly. By leveraging unbiased market expertise from sources like Breakthrough, you can effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About the Breakthrough Ecosystem
The Breakthrough Ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
28+ million shipments
$32 billion in transportation spend
15+ billion commercial miles
2 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Take control of your freight network
Experience firsthand how Breakthrough’s innovative freight solutions can keep a constant pulse on your transportation network performance and identify areas for cost reduction and efficiency gains.