The Breakthrough Monthly Freight Index
Elevate your freight strategy with the Breakthrough Ecosystem. Stay informed with the latest freight index and market update, empowering you to navigate shifts in demand and capacity.
Freight index analysis
Freight demand remains soft as weather disruptions compounded the macroeconomic backdrop. Declines were led by consumer‑exposed freight, while paper and packaging remain comparatively stable. Despite some economic headlines, freight fundamentals remain challenged. Job growth is concentrated outside goods‑moving sectors, consumer balance sheets are facing some strain, and manufacturing, construction, and housing show limited momentum.
The Breakthrough Freight Demand Indicator continues to signal subdued activity across the freight ecosystem. After peaking in 2022 and 2023, demand has steadily decelerated through the end of 2025. January 2026 broke from typical seasonal patterns as weather‑related disruptions drove volumes lower. Looking ahead, demand is expected to recover toward trend, with modest improvement later in 2026. Growth remains limited, with demand forecast to rise 0.6% year over year.
Freight market update
Published: February 20, 2026
Freight demand across the Breakthrough ecosystem is expected to rise 0.6 percent over the next year, though near‑term activity remains uneven following recent weather disruptions. Capacity is tightening gradually as carriers face sustained financial pressure, rising costs, and regulatory uncertainty, while driver capacity continues to normalize amid declining employment and tighter enforcement. Against this backdrop, rate forecasts have strengthened modestly.
Truckload contract rates are expected to rise in the low single‑digit range, with spot rates increasing in the low‑to‑mid single‑digit range and more muted gains in intermodal. While weather lifted spot rates in the near term, pricing momentum into 2026 will depend on whether capacity tightening proves durable as the market works toward balance.
Adapt to freight market demands
To maintain a competitive advantage, integrate innovative strategies that leverage data, technology, and market expertise. By doing so, you can take a proactive approach to procurement.
Access real-time data
Prepare for the forecasted increase in freight demand by having access to a real-time, shipper-transacted dataset. With this type of data at your fingertips, you can benchmark your network against other industry-leading shippers and uncover opportunities within your transportation network.
Invest in relationships
Invest in mutually beneficial relationships with carriers to be prepared for any sudden changes in freight demand or capacity. Leverage Capac-ID to determine if alternative carriers might be a better match for certain lanes and loads.
Leverage a trusted source
Keep informed about market shifts to adjust your transportation plans promptly. By leveraging unbiased market expertise from sources like Breakthrough, you can effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About the Breakthrough Ecosystem
The Breakthrough Ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
46.5 million shipments
$35 billion in transportation spend
16.5 billion commercial miles
2.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Take control of your freight network
Experience firsthand how Breakthrough’s innovative freight solutions can keep a constant pulse on your transportation network performance and identify areas for cost reduction and efficiency gains.