The Breakthrough Monthly Freight Index
Elevate your freight strategy with the Breakthrough Ecosystem. Stay informed with the latest freight index and market update, empowering you to navigate shifts in demand and capacity.
Freight index analysis
Freight volumes within the Breakthrough Ecosystem held relatively steady through late summer and early fall, but October showed some slight softness compared to the prior month. Overall volumes declined by 3% compared to the same period last year, with durable goods and paper and packaging flat while food and beverage, retail, and CPG saw noticeable declines. These categories are closely tied to consumer spending, making the trend worth watching.
The overall indicator continues to signal persistent weakness in freight demand, underscoring the ongoing freight recession. The recent softness reflects muted consumer activity, cautious manufacturing, and stagnant construction related to the stalled housing market. Tariff uncertainty and earlier inventory pull-forward have also weighed on shipments. Our forecast projects modest 0.8% year-over-year growth, driven by cautious optimism for greater clarity and reduced volatility by mid-2026.
Freight market update
Published: December 3, 2025
Freight demand remains soft, with October volumes down month-over-month and compared to last year amid economic headwinds and muted consumer activity. Durable goods and packaging held steady, but food, beverage, retail, and CPG posted declines, highlighting a “K-shaped” consumer spending pattern. Capacity constraints from carrier exits, regulatory shifts, and tariffs are tightening driver availability and slowing equipment purchases, creating subtle upward rate pressure. Forecasts call for 0.8% volume growth year-over-year and truckload rate increases of 2–3%, while intermodal remains stable.
Adapt to freight market demands
To maintain a competitive advantage, integrate innovative strategies that leverage data, technology, and market expertise. By doing so, you can take a proactive approach to procurement.
Access real-time data
Prepare for the forecasted increase in freight demand by having access to a real-time, shipper-transacted dataset. With this type of data at your fingertips, you can benchmark your network against other industry-leading shippers and uncover opportunities within your transportation network.
Invest in relationships
Invest in mutually beneficial relationships with carriers to be prepared for any sudden changes in freight demand or capacity. Leverage Capac-ID to determine if alternative carriers might be a better match for certain lanes and loads.
Leverage a trusted source
Keep informed about market shifts to adjust your transportation plans promptly. By leveraging unbiased market expertise from sources like Breakthrough, you can effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About the Breakthrough Ecosystem
The Breakthrough Ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
46.5 million shipments
$35 billion in transportation spend
16.5 billion commercial miles
2.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Take control of your freight network
Experience firsthand how Breakthrough’s innovative freight solutions can keep a constant pulse on your transportation network performance and identify areas for cost reduction and efficiency gains.