The Breakthrough Monthly Freight Index
Elevate your freight strategy with the Breakthrough Ecosystem. Stay informed with the latest freight index and market update, empowering you to navigate shifts in demand and capacity.
Freight index analysis
Breakthrough’s Freight Demand Indicator continues to signal persistent weakness during the ongoing recession. Since late fall 2023, the index has remained well below the prior two-year average. In November, the non-seasonally adjusted measure dropped from October and 3.7 percent year over year, reflecting seasonal trends as the short Thanksgiving week reduced volumes.
Looking ahead, the forecast shows only a 0.5 percent increase through fall 2026, indicating a slow return toward the long-term mean. Key sectors such as manufacturing, housing, and consumer spending offer limited signs of recovery. While late-fall optimism slightly lifts the outlook at the tail end, overall growth remains muted, and freight demand is expected to stay soft with only modest improvement projected over the next year.
Freight market update
Published: December 19, 2025
Freight demand volumes fell year-over-year through November, driven by declines in CPG, retail, and durable goods, while paper and packaging grew modestly and food and beverage stayed flat. Inflation adjustments and tariff front-loading softened shipments despite strong holiday sales. Macro uncertainty including labor market shifts, inflation, and a conflicted Fed rate cut will weigh on demand into 2026. Carrier exits, rising costs, and regulatory changes are tightening capacity, pushing forecasted rates up 2–3% for dry van and flatbed, with refrigerated slightly higher and intermodal at 1.5% over next twelve months.
Adapt to freight market demands
To maintain a competitive advantage, integrate innovative strategies that leverage data, technology, and market expertise. By doing so, you can take a proactive approach to procurement.
Access real-time data
Prepare for the forecasted increase in freight demand by having access to a real-time, shipper-transacted dataset. With this type of data at your fingertips, you can benchmark your network against other industry-leading shippers and uncover opportunities within your transportation network.
Invest in relationships
Invest in mutually beneficial relationships with carriers to be prepared for any sudden changes in freight demand or capacity. Leverage Capac-ID to determine if alternative carriers might be a better match for certain lanes and loads.
Leverage a trusted source
Keep informed about market shifts to adjust your transportation plans promptly. By leveraging unbiased market expertise from sources like Breakthrough, you can effectively communicate market dynamics to your C-suite, enhancing your credibility as a transportation leader.
About the Breakthrough Ecosystem
The Breakthrough Ecosystem is one of the cleanest and most robust sets of transportation data in the U.S.
46.5 million shipments
$35 billion in transportation spend
16.5 billion commercial miles
2.5 billion gallons of diesel fuel
Take control of your freight network
Experience firsthand how Breakthrough’s innovative freight solutions can keep a constant pulse on your transportation network performance and identify areas for cost reduction and efficiency gains.