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by Lindsay Steves
Lindsay Steves

2 min read

Understand the EPA's Phase 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions Standards

April 4, 2024

Lindsay Steves
by Lindsay Steves

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The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published its final rule for the Phase 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions Standards. The final rule is more stringent than expected, primarily because it incorporated the modeled effects of California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule. The outcome will significantly influence manufacturers' offering of zero-emission (ZEV) heavy-duty vehicles, a trend that has begun in several other states.

Impact of the Phase 3 Final Rule on Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions

The Phase 3 final rule is not a ZEV mandate, but it is expected to bolster the availability of ZEVs. The EPA models released in the announcement suggest that 22% of the entire heavy-duty on-road fleet will be ZEVs by 2040, although the proportion of ZEVs will vary by technology type. The new rule will require significantly more efficient vehicle production from manufacturers in a relatively short period of time.

Percent Increase in Efficiency from MY27-MY32.png

The cumulative emissions impact of the final rule will be close to the proposed rule, with an expected net reduction of 1.025 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent between 2027–2055. When considering vehicle technology and infrastructure costs, as well as energy security, climate, and health benefits, among others, the EPA calculates the cumulative net benefit of the Phase 3 final rule (Calendar Years 2027–2055) to be $32 billion (in 2022 $). 

While the actual outcomes and adoption rates may vary, depending on manufacturers' approaches and other market conditions, the EPA expects ZEV to increase across heavy-duty vehicle types.

Modeled Effects of the Final Rule on ZEV Adoption Rates.png

Navigate the EPA's Phase 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions Standards with CleanMile

With the EPA finalization of Phase 3 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions Standards on March 29, 2024, we stand on the brink of a significant shift in the transportation and logistics sector.

As a leading innovator in sustainable energy and freight solutions, we embrace this pivotal moment, empowering shippers with data, technology, and market insights to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape. Through CleanMile, our end-to-end transportation emissions management solution, shippers can work towards meeting the EPA's new emissions standards while optimizing their operations for efficiency and sustainability. Let's start the conversation today!

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